小鹏汽车─W(09868.HK):强势产品周期开启战略转型“物理AI”公司
Ge Long Hui·2026-01-06 20:32

Group 1 - The company achieved a record high in total deliveries and gross margin in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, and a significant reduction in net loss to 380 million yuan. Total delivery volume reached 116,007 units, a year-on-year increase of 149.3%, and the gross margin exceeded 20% for the first time, reaching 20.1% [1] - The company has launched a "dual power" strategy to address user range anxiety, introducing the first range-extended model, the X9 EREV, which features a 63.3 kWh battery and a conversion rate exceeding 3.6 kWh/L, achieving a pure electric range of 452 km. Additional range-extended versions of key models such as G6, G7, and P7i are expected to be launched in Q1 2026, along with four new models including two SUVs on the MONA platform [1] - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with the launch of range-extended and new models, leading to a continuous increase in vehicle sales [1] Group 2 - The company is transitioning to a "physical AI" company, showcasing its commitment and specific path at the 2025 Technology Day. The core technology, VLA 2.0, is a second-generation visual-language-action model that enhances reasoning efficiency by 12 times and improves average takeover mileage in complex scenarios by 13 times. This model is planned for full deployment on Ultra models in Q1 2026 and is expected to extend to robotics and other embodied intelligence fields [2] - The company announced the launch of China's first fully self-developed front-mounted mass-produced Robotaxi, with plans to introduce three models in 2026 and begin trial operations in H2 2026. Despite a gap in operational experience compared to industry leaders, the innovative "fully shared + private" business model may allow the company to secure a position in the billion-level mobility market [2] - The humanoid robot IRON is set to achieve mass production by the end of 2026, with initial trials in commercial scenarios such as guiding and shopping. The AI technology developed for the humanoid robot will also benefit the autonomous driving sector, creating a positive feedback loop [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 75.8 billion, 132.1 billion, and 166.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 85.4%, 74.3%, and 25.9%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -1.55 billion, 2 billion, and 6.13 billion yuan [3]