美国高院更新日程表 最快于本月9日宣布特朗普关税案裁决

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to announce its decision on the Trump tariff case on January 9, which could have significant implications for U.S. trade policy and government revenue [1][3]. Group 1: Case Background - The case revolves around the legality of tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), specifically the "reciprocal tariffs" and "fentanyl tariffs" [3][6]. - The U.S. International Trade Court previously ruled that these tariffs exceeded the legal authority of the Trump administration, and the Federal Circuit Court upheld this ruling [6]. Group 2: Implications of the Ruling - If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, it could lead to significant financial repercussions, with projected tariff revenues exceeding $200 billion by 2025 [6]. - Treasury Secretary Yellen has expressed concerns that a delayed ruling could result in "significant chaos" if the accumulated tariffs are deemed illegal [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Following the oral arguments in November, the prediction market Polymarket indicated a drop in the probability of Trump winning the case to around 20% [3][6]. - Trump himself has voiced concerns about the potential negative impact of a ruling against him, stating it would be a "terrible blow" to the U.S. [6].