中国经济有强力支撑 渣打仍然超配中国股票

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's Wealth Solutions Division released a report titled "2026 Global Market Outlook," highlighting the critical turning point in global markets due to geopolitical conflicts and the AI bubble, with a forecast of weakening structural support for the US dollar and increasing resilience in Asian economies [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The bank anticipates that risk assets will outperform in 2026, despite market differentiation, suggesting investors diversify across a broader range of asset classes [1] - Recommended core allocations include overweight positions in US, Indian, and Chinese equities, emerging market debt, and gold, with Chinese stocks expected to benefit from improved corporate governance and supportive policies for technology and innovation [1][2] Group 2: Economic and Policy Insights - China is expected to implement more decisive and targeted stimulus measures by 2026, focusing on advanced technology investments to enhance self-sufficiency and productivity [2] - Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position in Chinese stocks, citing strong corporate earnings growth related to AI themes and targeted policy support for the economy [2] Group 3: Bond and Currency Market Outlook - The bank views global bonds as a core holding, favoring government bonds over corporate bonds due to attractive nominal yields, with an overweight in emerging market government bonds benefiting from moderate inflation and dovish monetary policy [2] - In the foreign exchange market, the bank expects the US dollar to remain supported in the short term due to cautious Fed policies and geopolitical risks, but anticipates a weakening of the dollar's structural support over the next 12 months as the Fed may shift to easing [2] Group 4: Commodity Price Forecasts - Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position in gold, with target prices of $4,350 per ounce in 3 months and $4,800 per ounce in 12 months, driven by ongoing demand from emerging market central banks and favorable macro conditions [3] - The bank forecasts that New York crude oil prices will stabilize around $61 per barrel in 3 months and $60 per barrel in 12 months, with supply surplus expected to limit short-term price rebounds from geopolitical risks [3]