Can Nike Finally Bounce Back in 2026?

Core Viewpoint - NIKE has faced significant challenges in recent years, including post-pandemic demand issues and margin pressures from tariffs, leading to a year-to-date stock decline of approximately 15% in 2025. The company is now focusing on a turnaround strategy for 2026 [1][9]. Group 1: Company Challenges - NIKE's shift to a direct-to-consumer model has backfired, resulting in reduced shelf space and brand visibility in retail environments [2][9]. - The company's sales growth has been modest, with a year-over-year increase of only 0.6%, which is significantly lower than historical growth rates [3][10]. - Profitability has been impacted, with gross margins contracting by 300 basis points year-over-year due to tariffs and softer post-pandemic demand [4][6]. Group 2: Financial Outlook - The current Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for NIKE has been revised down by more than 30% over the past year, with next year's estimate also falling by 14% [8]. - Despite the challenges, there has been some improvement in top-line performance, with the latest revenue growth rate of 0.6% representing a recovery from declines of -12% and -9% earlier in 2025 [10]. Group 3: Future Prospects - NIKE's CEO has expressed confidence in the company's comeback strategy, indicating that progress is being made in prioritized areas for long-term growth and profitability [4]. - The stock is considered one to watch closely in 2026, as a quarterly release showing accelerating sales growth and easing tariffs could positively impact its performance [11].