美重塑全球石油供应链意图明显

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is that the recent U.S. military action in Venezuela is primarily aimed at seizing control of the country's vast oil resources, which account for 17% of global oil reserves, revealing the underlying motives of U.S. geopolitical dominance and energy control [2][3][4] - The U.S. has openly demanded Venezuela to return all previously "stolen" oil, land, and assets, indicating a direct intention to control the Venezuelan oil industry rather than merely seeking regime change [3][4] - The U.S. plans to reintegrate its oil companies into Venezuela, aiming to inject capital and technology to fully incorporate the Venezuelan oil sector into a U.S.-led framework [4][5] Group 2 - The global oil market is currently experiencing a paradoxical situation where, despite the apparent calm, significant underlying tensions exist due to U.S. interventions, with Brent crude oil prices briefly dropping by 1.2% to $60 per barrel before rebounding [4][5] - Venezuela's oil production has been severely impacted by sanctions, with an average daily output of only 934,000 barrels in November 2025, representing less than 1% of global supply, leading to expectations that U.S. control could increase exports to 3 million barrels per day [5][6] - The U.S. intervention is expected to disrupt the existing balance of the global refining industry, as Asian and European refineries that rely on Venezuelan heavy crude may face shortages, forcing them to seek alternatives and increasing costs [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. strategy aims to weaken the influence of the OPEC+ alliance by creating a new "key variable" outside of it, potentially undermining its ability to coordinate production effectively [7][8] - The U.S. is positioned as the largest oil exporter globally, which has diminished OPEC+'s market influence, with the alliance's ability to manage production levels significantly weakened since 2025 [7][8] - The U.S. intervention is seen as a manifestation of the "America First" principle in energy, aiming to maintain the dominance of the dollar in oil transactions and counteract the trend of de-dollarization globally [8][9] Group 4 - In the short term, the military action is likely to increase risk premiums in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to fluctuate between $58 and $63 per barrel in January, despite a predicted oversupply of 4 million barrels per day by 2026 [9][10] - If the U.S. successfully controls Venezuela, it could lead to a gradual increase in production from 934,000 barrels per day towards historical peaks of 3 million barrels per day, exacerbating the oversupply situation [10][11] - Long-term projections indicate a shift towards a tripartite oil supply structure involving the U.S., the Middle East, and Russia, while OPEC+'s regulatory capacity continues to decline [11]