国际金价为何一路狂飙？（环球热点）

Core Insights - The international gold prices are expected to reach historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions, market supply-demand imbalances, and increased safe-haven demand, with a cumulative increase of over 70% throughout the year [1][2]. Market Performance - Gold prices surged from $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to $4,500 per ounce by the end of the year, marking a record-breaking 50 instances of new highs [2][3]. - The price fluctuations in 2025 can be categorized into several phases: 1. January to April saw a spike from $2,900 to $3,500 due to tariff fears. 2. April to August experienced a stabilization between $3,200 and $3,500 amid trade negotiations. 3. August to October saw prices exceed $3,800, reaching a peak of $4,200. 4. October to mid-December involved a technical correction due to profit-taking. 5. Mid-December to year-end saw prices surpass $4,500 due to multiple factors [3]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The rise in gold prices reflects a "multi-logical resonance," influenced by the long-term upward trend post-Bretton Woods collapse, traditional geopolitical risks, inflation hedging, and the impact of "de-dollarization" [3][8]. - The decline of the dollar's dominance is evident, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping from 57.79% to 56.32% in 2025, marking a 30-year low [6]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, India, and Russia, are increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift towards diversification away from the dollar [8][12]. - Gold's share in global reserves reached 20% in 2024, surpassing the euro's 16%, and the total gold reserves held by central banks are nearing post-World War II highs [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank demand [9][12]. - The anticipated continuation of low interest rates by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is expected to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, further supporting its price [12].