特朗普闯祸，美联储紧急救市，将继续降息？美元创25年新低

Group 1 - The core event involves the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, which has significantly impacted global financial markets, causing volatility in U.S. stock futures, a surge in gold and silver prices, and a decline in the U.S. dollar index [1][3][5] - Trump's declaration of intent to "take over Venezuela's key energy assets" indicates a strategic move to leverage geopolitical actions for economic benefits, highlighting the intertwining of military and economic strategies [3][5] - The immediate market reaction saw energy and defense stocks benefiting, with Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics shares rising approximately 3%, while the Dow Jones index increased by 1.23%, reaching a historical high [5][10] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index had already declined nearly 9.5% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance since 2017, reflecting a loss of market trust in the dollar [7][13] - The Federal Reserve's response to market instability includes a neutral stance on interest rate cuts, with an 18.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January, while 81.7% of the market expects rates to remain unchanged [8][10] - Despite the Fed's liquidity management operations, which have become a norm, there is a growing concern about the sustainability of the dollar's value amid rising national debt exceeding $38 trillion [10][13] Group 3 - The dollar's dominance is being challenged as countries increasingly pursue local currency settlements, particularly in the energy sector, undermining the dollar's long-standing monopoly in pricing commodities [15][19] - The International Monetary Fund reported that the dollar's share of global allocated foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92% in Q3 2025, signaling a potential shift in the global monetary landscape [15][19] - The trend of central banks favoring gold as a reserve asset, with gold prices soaring nearly 68% in 2025, indicates a move towards tangible assets as a hedge against fiat currency risks [15][19] Group 4 - The structural issues facing the dollar are becoming apparent, as political influences on monetary policy raise concerns about the future of the dollar as a global reserve currency [19][20] - The evolving international monetary system is seeing the emergence of multiple anchor currencies, including gold, the yuan, and the euro, suggesting a decline in the dollar's singular dominance [19][20] - The future may not necessitate a single "world currency," but rather a variety of "regional currencies," each operating independently [20]