海外供给再现收缩预期，下游新能源需求稳定，海内外镍期货大涨

Group 1 - Nickel prices surged over 10% on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reaching a peak of $18,545 per ton, marking the largest intraday increase since 2022, with a cumulative rise of over 20% in the past two weeks [1] - The core logic behind the price increase is the strengthening expectation of supply contraction, driven by the suspension of nickel mining activities by Indonesia's Vale due to unapproved annual work plans [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas by 250 million tons by 2026, which has intensified supply constraint expectations, significantly boosting market sentiment [1] Group 2 - According to Fangzheng Securities, the suspension of nickel mining by Vale and the Indonesian government's quota reduction plan are expected to accelerate the supply-demand rebalancing in the nickel industry [2] - The long-term upward trend for industrial metals remains intact, supported by supply shortages in copper and expectations of mid-term easing from the Federal Reserve, with nickel benefiting from supply contraction and renewable energy demand [2] - The rise in nickel prices will directly benefit nickel mining, smelting, and nickel-cobalt new material companies, while also exerting cost pressure on downstream industries such as stainless steel and new energy batteries [2] Group 3 - Company Greenme focuses on the recycling and manufacturing of new energy battery materials, possessing nickel resource recovery and smelting capacity, and has established stable cooperation with downstream battery enterprises [3] - Company Huaxin Environmental's subsidiary, Anhui Huaxin Jintong Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., primarily produces cathode copper from black copper refining, along with gold, silver, and nickel products [3]