沪指13连阳创逾十年新高，这一轮牛市会挑战2015年高点吗？

Market Performance - A-shares have significantly risen, reaching a new high of 4083 points, marking a bullish trend with increased trading volume of 2.8 trillion yuan [2] - The market has set two records: a closing point above 4000 for the first time in over a decade and a 13-day consecutive rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Market Capitalization - As of the end of 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares is approximately 123 trillion yuan (about 17.6 trillion USD), still significantly lower than the US market, which has a total market cap of around 67 trillion USD [3] - If A-share market capitalization reaches 150 trillion yuan, it could challenge the 5000-point mark, representing about one-third of the current US market cap [3] Valuation Metrics - As of January 6, the overall A-share price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 17.95, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is about 1.88, indicating that current valuations are not excessively high compared to historical bull markets [3] - However, when considering the past decade's valuations, the current market valuation is near the upper limit of reasonable valuation [4] Future Earnings Growth - The potential for A-share market indices to rise further depends on the earnings growth of listed companies in 2026 and 2027, with a target growth rate of 10% to 12% [4] - The market has been driven by technology and rare metals sectors, while traditional sectors remain undervalued, suggesting potential for a rebound in these areas [4] Sector Analysis - Few sectors remain at historical valuation lows, with the consumer sector, particularly liquor, being a notable example. Other sectors with P/E ratios below 30% include home appliances, textiles, food, media, pharmaceuticals, and securities, indicating potential for future gains [5] - The 4000-point level, which has historically acted as a resistance, may now serve as a strong support level, potentially marking the beginning of a new bull market [5] Global Market Context - The global stock market may continue its bullish trend in 2026, influenced by loose liquidity conditions, with the potential for A-shares to increase in market capitalization [5] - If the A-share market capitalization exceeds 22 trillion USD, it could challenge the 5000-point level, still representing only a third of the US market cap [5] Liquidity Sources - The current margin financing balance in A-shares is approximately 2.55 trillion yuan, which is about 2.5% of the market's circulating value, indicating room for growth [6] - In a low-interest-rate environment, more deposit funds may flow into the stock market, providing additional liquidity for A-shares [6] Investor Sentiment - The A-share market is not lacking in funds but rather in investor confidence and the perception of profit-making opportunities [7] - A sustained profit-making effect could attract significant new capital into the A-share market, driving further upward momentum [7]