“旗手”归来！券商板块开年爆发 机构解读2026投资主线

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has been performing strongly since the beginning of the year, with the brokerage sector leading the charge, indicating potential for valuation recovery and long-term investment opportunities in the sector [1][9]. Market Performance - As of January 6, the three major A-share indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high and recording a 13-day winning streak. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 260.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking a three-month high [1]. - The brokerage sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Huazhong Securities and Hualin Securities hitting the daily limit, while others like Changjiang Securities and Guotai Junan rose over 5% [1]. Institutional Insights - Multiple institutions predict that the brokerage sector will benefit from a "slow bull" market and the acceleration of building world-class investment banks, leading to valuation recovery and highlighting long-term investment value [1][9]. - Key investment strategies for 2026 include focusing on "low valuation," "leading brokerages," "mergers and acquisitions," "wealth management," and "overseas business" [1][12]. Policy Impact - The recent comprehensive reform of public funds is seen as a significant policy benefit for the brokerage sector, effective from January 1, 2026, which aims to promote long-term value investment and optimize the investment ecosystem [2][3]. Performance Discrepancy - In 2025, despite a 42.55% increase in revenue and a 62.38% rise in net profit for 42 listed brokerages, the sector's overall stock performance was only up 4.05%, significantly lagging behind major indices like the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite [6][8]. - Analysts attribute this discrepancy to high timing difficulty, a mismatch between market performance and earnings, and significant individual stock differentiation [8]. Future Outlook - Predictions for 2026 suggest a shift towards a more stable market with moderate growth in trading volume, with daily trading expected to range between 2.2 trillion and 3.2 trillion yuan [9]. - Regulatory focus on "high-quality development" is expected to expand capital space for leading brokerages, supporting mergers and acquisitions and the development of wealth management and international business [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - Institutions recommend focusing on low-valuation leading brokerages, those with strong wealth management capabilities, and firms benefiting from cross-border asset management trials [12][13]. - Analysts also highlight the importance of investment banking and the potential for improved performance from underwriting and follow-on investments in the context of a recovering market [14].