“被延后”的修复

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a sustainable revaluation of Chinese assets, drawing parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, emphasizing the importance of addressing structural issues alongside short-term stimulus measures [1][2]. Group 1: Japan's Structural Issues in the 1990s - Japan faced significant structural issues, including an aging population, which increased the elderly dependency ratio from 17.4% in 1990 to 25.6% in 2000, highlighting the aging problem [10]. - The public pension system was under pressure due to aging, with pension expenditures as a percentage of GDP increasing by 2.1 percentage points during the 1990s, raising concerns about sustainability [12]. - The real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, leading to a prolonged decline in housing prices, with national residential land prices dropping by 52.8% over two decades [22]. - Employment challenges arose as the labor market faced oversupply, with university graduate employment rates falling from 81.3% in 1991 to 55.1% in 2003 [24]. - The financial system was strained as the real estate bubble's collapse weakened cash flows for real estate companies, increasing non-performing assets for banks [30]. Group 2: Policy Shortcomings in the 1990s - Japan's policies in the 1990s were inadequate, with a misalignment in technology direction and a reliance on short-term infrastructure investments, which did not lead to sustainable long-term growth [4]. - The government overly depended on quick-return infrastructure projects, which constituted nearly 20% of fiscal spending at times, delaying the resolution of structural issues [4]. - Real estate policies were slow and insufficient, with mortgage rate cuts lagging behind, leading to prolonged downward pressure on housing prices and damage to household balance sheets [53]. - The slow pace of debt resolution and a lenient approach to non-performing assets weakened the financial system's resilience, leading to higher costs during external shocks [56]. Group 3: Policy Awakening Post-2000 - After 2000, Japan shifted its policy focus towards social welfare, with social spending as a percentage of total fiscal expenditure rising from 21.4% in 2000 to 32.7% in 2015-2019 [65]. - The government implemented significant reforms to address non-performing assets, with the non-performing loan ratio dropping from 8.4% in 2001 to 2.9% in 2004, restoring bank credit functions [74]. - Technological policies became more aligned with market realities, focusing on key sectors and enhancing direct support for corporate R&D through revised tax incentives [78]. Group 4: Implications for China - China faces similar challenges with old growth drivers still weighing on the economy, particularly as real estate and domestic demand slow down [80]. - The importance of addressing old growth drivers is emphasized, as current policies like consumption subsidies may not suffice until structural issues in real estate and social welfare are resolved [82]. - The article suggests that timely and effective policy responses can mitigate the impact of external shocks and facilitate a smoother adjustment process for the economy [82].