期权市场“抢跑”美国非农等经济数据：看涨买盘扩大，押注10Y美债收益率数周内跌破4%

Group 1 - US Treasury options traders are increasing bets that the 10-year Treasury yield will break below 4% in the coming weeks, reaching its lowest level since November [1] - Since the end of December, bullish sentiment in the options market has been growing, with traders awaiting key economic data unaffected by the US government shutdown [1] - A significant buyer has purchased contracts expecting yields to drop from just below 4.2% to around 3.95%, with options expiring on February 20 [1] Group 2 - According to JPMorgan's weekly survey, sentiment in the cash market has turned pessimistic, with a significant increase in short positions [4] - As of the week ending January 5, JPMorgan clients' long positions decreased by 11 percentage points, while short positions increased by 6 percentage points, leading to the lowest net long positions since October 2024 [5] Group 3 - In the past week, there was little change in open interest for SOFR options due to low trading volumes during the holiday period, with strong demand for downside structures in March 26 options [8] - The overall open interest in SOFR options indicates that the 96.50 strike price carries the highest risk, with a large number of both call and put options expiring in March 2026 [10] Group 4 - The premium paid to hedge against US Treasury risks has returned to neutral levels, reflecting a balance between the premiums for call and put options, contrasting with previous higher premiums for puts [11]