年关临近，聚酯链品种能否重拾升势？

Core Viewpoint - The polyester chain market has experienced significant volatility since mid-December 2025, driven primarily by upstream PX price movements, with expectations for future supply and demand dynamics influencing market behavior [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The core driver of the recent market fluctuations is the upstream PX, which saw a price increase from 6,800 yuan/ton to over 7,600 yuan/ton, with a corresponding rise in the US spot price from $830/ton to nearly $920/ton, both exceeding 10% increases [3][4]. - Following a peak in PX prices, a decline in trading volume led to a significant price correction, indicating market divergence and profit-taking behavior [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Analysts predict a supply gap for PX before the concentrated release of new capacity in Q3 2026, suggesting that PX remains the strongest product in the polyester supply chain [3]. - The textile industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with weakening orders and declining weaving operating rates, which may pressure cash flows for polyester producers and lead to production cuts [3][4]. Group 3: Seasonal Factors and Future Trends - The period before and after the Spring Festival is expected to see a slowdown in terminal operations and reduced demand, with downstream stocking intentions heavily influenced by market expectations [4][5]. - If raw material prices rise significantly again, it could lead to increased production halts among companies, exacerbating negative feedback in the market [4]. - The actual release of downstream demand post-Spring Festival will be crucial for determining whether upstream processing fees can maintain strength [5].