设备投资，能否“持续高增”？

Group 1 - The core argument is that the high growth in equipment investment is not driven by the "Two New" policies or the Juglar cycle, but rather by strong investment in broad infrastructure and the service sector [1][8][70] - Equipment investment growth is significantly higher in sectors such as construction (65.5%), narrow infrastructure (46.1%), public utilities (16.5%), and services (13.9%) compared to manufacturing (6.5%), contributing an additional 8.1 percentage points to overall equipment investment [1][8][70] - In 2025, manufacturing investment growth is expected to decline to 1.9%, while equipment investment will maintain high growth at 12.2%, driven by digital and energy infrastructure [1][8][70] Group 2 - The strong growth in equipment investment is fueled by the establishment of a modern industrial system, which enhances digital infrastructure, alongside natural renewal cycles and recovering travel demand [3][25][70] - Key sectors such as software and computer services are experiencing growth rates of 53%, while aviation and road transport equipment investments are also high due to recovering travel demand [3][25][70] - Public utility equipment investment has been boosted by accelerated energy transition and infrastructure investment in the central and western regions since the implementation of the "dual carbon" policy [4][32][70] Group 3 - The sustainability of high equipment investment growth is anticipated to continue into 2026, supported by both domestic and external demand [5][60][70] - Narrow infrastructure investment is expected to rebound significantly, particularly in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments, with policies promoting new infrastructure and major engineering projects [5][60][70] - The "dual carbon" policy will further enhance investment in equipment for carbon reduction, including modifications in high-energy-consuming industries and investments in renewable energy [5][52][70]