玻璃基板：AI存储未来几年最大的预期差之一

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a transformative shift driven by the explosive growth in computing demand, leading to a shortage of memory by 2026, which is testing the physical limits of traditional semiconductor technologies [1] - The transition from organic substrates to glass substrates is a fundamental change in semiconductor packaging, addressing the limitations of organic materials under the demands of AI and high-performance computing [2][4] Group 1: Challenges of Organic Substrates - Organic substrates, traditionally used for packaging, are facing significant challenges such as signal transmission loss, thermal expansion mismatches, and warping under stress, which hinder chip performance and increase complexity and costs [2] - The physical mismatches in traditional organic substrates can accumulate into critical performance bottlenecks when thousands of GPUs work in unison for AI training [2] Group 2: Advantages of Glass Substrates - Glass substrates offer unique advantages, including lower dielectric loss, superior thermal stability, and a thermal expansion coefficient closely matching silicon, which reduces warping by 70% during thermal cycling [5] - The smoothness and thinness of glass substrates enable finer circuit designs and allow for ultra-fine wiring with a line width of 2μm, achieving a via density of over 100,000 per cm², which is more than ten times that of traditional organic substrates [5] Group 3: Strategic Moves by Industry Giants - Major players in the semiconductor industry are investing in glass substrate technology, with Intel being a pioneer, having developed its glass substrate technology over the past decade, with products expected between 2026 and 2030 [6] - Samsung is pursuing a dual strategy, focusing on rapid commercialization of glass core substrates while also developing glass interlayers for advanced packaging by 2028 [6] - Other companies like SK Group's Absolics and Corning are also making significant strides in glass substrate production, with Absolics aiming for mass production by the end of 2025 [6] Group 4: Applications and Future Potential - Glass substrates are increasingly recognized for their value in AI chip packaging, enabling high-density heterogeneous integration of HBM and logic chips, which is crucial for overcoming current AI computing bottlenecks [7] - The potential application of glass substrates in Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology represents a breakthrough in addressing data center challenges related to power and bandwidth, simplifying the integration of electronic and photonic chips [7] Group 5: Commercialization Challenges - Despite the promising outlook for glass substrates, challenges remain in their commercialization, including the fragility of glass, which complicates processing techniques such as drilling and plating [9] - The long-term reliability data for glass substrates is still lacking, particularly for high-reliability applications in sectors like automotive and aerospace, necessitating time and practical validation [9] - Manufacturing bottlenecks exist in the supply chain for critical equipment needed for glass substrate production, which may lead to unstable yields in the early stages of commercialization [9] Group 6: Conclusion on Material Innovation - Material innovation, particularly the shift to glass substrates, is seen as the only viable path to overcoming computing bottlenecks, reshaping the semiconductor industry's geopolitical landscape and corporate strategies [10]