镍价大幅走高 印尼减产或导致2026年供需反转(附概念股)
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-07 00:38

Group 1: Nickel Price and Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have surged, with three-month nickel futures increasing by 10% to reach $18,735 per ton, the highest level since June 2024 [1] - The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) projects global nickel demand to reach 3.82 million tons and production to hit 4.09 million tons by 2026, with a potential supply-demand reversal due to a forecasted reduction of 200,000 to 300,000 tons in Indonesian nickel production [1] - The price increase is primarily driven by Indonesia's plans to cut nickel ore quotas and macroeconomic sentiment, as stated by Jinrui Futures nickel researcher Dai Zizhao [1] Group 2: Indonesian Policy Changes - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, plans to significantly reduce its nickel production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons by 2026, a cut of 34%, to control oversupply and support prices [2] - The tightening of nickel ore quotas is expected to have a minimal economic impact on Indonesia, and higher nickel prices could enhance tax revenues and increase the value of local resources, making the implementation of these policies likely [2] Group 3: Companies in the Nickel Industry - Liqin Resources (02245) has submitted application materials for a proposed A-share issuance to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, covering a complete industrial chain including nickel ore trading, smelting production, and equipment manufacturing [3] - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has been strategically investing in upstream nickel, phosphorus, and lithium resources globally since 2022, with expectations to self-supply 30,000 tons of metal nickel by 2026, potentially increasing profits by 20 to 30 million yuan [3] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) owns several nickel-copper mines and has additional mineral resources, indicating a diversified portfolio in the nickel sector [3]