宝城期货：铁矿石后市高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend since mid-December last year, with the main contract price breaking through a five-month resistance level and reaching a new high [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 2025, iron ore prices are significantly outperforming other black commodities, with the iron ore price index reported at $105.80 per ton [1][2] - The current market structure shows a strong performance in spot prices, with port transactions increasing [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the supportive factors for iron ore prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains weak, limiting upward price momentum [3] - Steel mills have gradually resumed production since 2026, with average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills at 2.2743 million tons, and daily consumption of imported ore at 2.8067 million tons, both showing slight increases [3] - However, the profitability of steel mills remains low, with only 38.10% of the surveyed mills reporting profits, indicating ongoing financial pressure [3] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Pressure - Domestic port arrivals have increased, with the latest data showing 28.247 million tons at 47 ports, a weekly increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level for the year [4] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased to 32.137 million tons, down 4.6342 million tons week-on-week, but still higher than the same period last year [4] - Port inventories have reached a historical high of 167.2179 million tons, with significant pressure on inventory reduction [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In summary, while iron ore prices are supported by short-term factors, the overall fundamentals remain weak due to supply pressures and limited demand improvement, leading to expectations of a high-level oscillation in prices [5]