国泰海通:首予明略科技-W “谨慎增持”评级 目标价222.71港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-07 01:21

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guotai Junan initiates coverage on Minglue Technology (02718) with a "Cautious Accumulate" rating, projecting net profits of -0.13/0.37/1.11 billion RMB and revenues of 15/16.6/18.1 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, respectively. The company’s current net profit is significantly affected by non-cash items, leading to distorted short-term PE metrics. A PS valuation of 18 times for 2026 is applied, resulting in a reasonable market value of 33.12 billion RMB and a target price of 222.71 HKD [1]. Group 1 - The company is a leading provider of data intelligence application software in China [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 644 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, indicating a recovery from a 5.5% revenue decline in 2024 [2]. - The gross profit margins from 2022 to 2024 were 53.2%, 50.1%, and 51.6%, with an expected increase to 55.9% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a higher proportion of high-margin marketing intelligence business and cost control through product standardization and AI tools [2]. Group 2 - The company's revenue is primarily derived from three segments: marketing intelligence, operational intelligence, and industry solutions. The marketing intelligence segment, which includes products like the second-generation system and AI-driven social media insights, generated 354 million RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.75%, accounting for 55.01% of total revenue [3]. - The operational intelligence segment focuses on conversational intelligence and smart store operation systems, achieving revenue of 269 million RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.77%, representing 41.71% of total revenue [3]. - The company has been actively reducing low-margin, highly customized projects since 2022, reallocating resources to replicable standardized products and large model intelligence [3]. Group 3 - The company is increasing its investment in multi-modal large models and intelligent agents, launching generative AI products like "Xiao Ming Assistant" for enterprise decision-making and operational scenarios, as well as the AIGC product insightFlow CMS, which integrates marketing insights, content production, and optimization [4].

Guotai Haitong Securities-国泰海通:首予明略科技-W “谨慎增持”评级 目标价222.71港元 - Reportify