本土化与生态“出海”将是破局关键

Core Insights - In 2025, China's automobile exports reached 6.343 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, with new energy vehicle (NEV) exports at 2.315 million units, growing by 102.9% [2] - The growth momentum is expected to continue into 2026, with a transition towards "stable quantity and improved quality" as the industry expands export scale and deepens localization [2] Group 1: Export Predictions - Multiple organizations predict optimistic growth for China's automobile exports in 2026, with estimates ranging from 680,000 to 800,000 units, and NEV exports projected at 350,000 units [3] - The China Automobile Industry Association anticipates continued growth in exports but with a slowing growth rate, while Morgan Stanley forecasts 6.97 million passenger car exports, focusing on Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America as key markets [3] - The export strategy has evolved into a dual-driven model of "emerging market expansion + developed market breakthroughs," with countries like Mexico, UAE, Brazil, and the UK becoming significant growth contributors [3] Group 2: Localization Efforts - The localization process for Chinese automakers is accelerating, with companies increasing investments in overseas factories, such as BYD's plant in Hungary and Chery's joint venture in Spain [4] - Key components supply chains are also being localized, with companies like CATL and Fuyao Glass establishing production bases abroad to enhance local manufacturing capabilities and reduce supply chain risks [4] - The deepening of localization is crucial for building a collaborative manufacturing system that integrates vehicle and component production [4] Group 3: Market Adaptation and Challenges - Chinese automakers are optimizing product configurations to meet diverse market demands and are developing comprehensive service ecosystems, including sales, after-sales, and charging networks [5] - The EU's stringent localization requirements pose challenges, necessitating deep local R&D and production capabilities rather than simple assembly [5] - Trade protectionism, particularly Mexico's increased tariffs on imports from non-free trade agreement countries, threatens to undermine the competitive advantage of Chinese brands [5] Group 4: Supply Chain Risks - Supply chain risks, particularly in automotive-grade chips and power semiconductors, are significant challenges for global automakers, including Chinese companies [6] - Variations in technical standards and consumer habits across different markets, along with geopolitical policy fluctuations, demand higher operational standards from Chinese automakers [6] - The year 2026 is characterized by both growth and challenges, requiring Chinese automakers to focus on technological innovation and diversified ecosystems to achieve high-quality development [6]