中金：资本市场风险偏好改善提振非银金融业绩表现

Core Viewpoint - The spring market trend in A-shares is expected to continue, with a focus on growth sectors and cyclical industries benefiting from policy support and market dynamics [1][2]. Industry Configuration Insights 1) Energy and Basic Materials - Demand expectations for thermal coal have weakened, leading to a price drop of 17% in December, while coking coal and coke prices increased by 4% and 8% respectively [11]. - The supply-demand mismatch, combined with monetary easing, has resulted in significant price increases for precious metals and industrial metals, with copper, aluminum, and lithium carbonate prices rising by 12%, 5%, and 26% respectively [13]. 2) Industrial Products - Domestic demand is structurally differentiated, with strong performance in emerging markets for manufacturing exports. Excavator sales increased by 19% year-on-year in November, while electric grid investment rose by 6% [4]. 3) Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are facing challenges, with home appliance sales declining significantly in November, including a 25% drop in air conditioner sales [5]. - The central economic work conference emphasized expanding domestic demand as a priority, with specific policies aimed at increasing income and optimizing supply [5]. 4) Technology - Innovations in AI applications are emerging, with the semiconductor industry showing strong performance, as global semiconductor sales grew by 25% year-on-year in October [6]. - The demand for consumer electronics remains mixed, with smartphone sales up by 5% but declines in laptop and computer hardware sales [6]. 5) Financial Sector - Banks are attracting long-term capital due to their high dividend yields and stable earnings, with insurance premiums increasing by 7.6% year-on-year in November [7]. - The stock market's sentiment is stabilizing, with an average daily trading volume of 1.88 trillion yuan in December [7]. 6) Real Estate - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a 27% year-on-year decline in sales area for commercial housing in December, despite a 45% month-on-month increase [7]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [7].