东吴证券：太空光伏有望迎来高速发展 投资聚焦高效钙钛矿与叠层技术

Core Insights - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the rapid development of commercial aerospace and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, indicating that space photovoltaic power supply is optimal and may experience rapid growth, supported by efficient perovskite/silicon tandem technology [1] Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Development - The maturity of reusable rocket technology has significantly reduced launch costs, breaking down economic barriers to entering space. The scarcity of satellite frequency resources is driving countries to accelerate the acquisition of strategic resources, leading to a sustained increase in global spacecraft launches. The number of global spacecraft launches has grown from 237 in 2016 to over 4,300 by 2025, with a CAGR of 34% and an increase of over 50% year-on-year in 2025 [2] Group 2: Photovoltaic Energy in Satellites - Photovoltaics are the only efficient and stable energy source for satellites, with solar wings accounting for approximately 20-30% of the satellite manufacturing cost. Solar wings are critical for spacecraft operation, representing over 60% of the value, with current mainstream gallium arsenide costing around 200,000 to 300,000 per square meter. As the power requirements of satellites increase, the area of solar wings is expected to grow significantly, with SpaceX's Starlink V3 satellite solar wing area increasing by over 10 times compared to earlier versions [3] Group 3: Technology Optimization - Gallium arsenide is the mainstream technology in China, known for its high efficiency and radiation resistance, with component efficiency exceeding 30%. However, its high cost (200,000 to 400,000 yuan per square meter) may limit large-scale satellite constellation deployment. In contrast, foreign companies like SpaceX have lower launch costs, and while silicon can offer lower weight-to-cost ratios, the lower-cost P-type silicon route may be preferred for single satellite costs. Perovskite batteries show promise in terms of lightweight, high energy-to-weight ratio, low cost, and stability, potentially becoming a superior solution for space power supply [4] Group 4: Market Potential and Investment Recommendations - The global deployment of low Earth orbit satellites is entering an explosive phase, with over 100,000 satellites registered globally by the end of 2025. The U.S. leads with approximately 42,000 satellites through Starlink, while China has submitted plans for over 51,000 satellites. Assuming an annual launch of 10,000 satellites, the solar wing market could reach nearly 200 billion. The surge in AI computing demand is pushing computational power to space, leveraging the advantages of solar energy and thermal conditions in near-Earth orbit. If a 10GW space computing system is established, the solar wing market could reach several trillion yuan. Investment recommendations include JunDa Co. (collaborating with Shangyi on satellite perovskite), Mingyang Smart Energy (subsidiary focusing on perovskite and HJT technology), and others in the HJT/perovskite battery sector [5]