Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, shifting its focus to stabilizing growth, yet market sentiment remains unsettled [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that recent employment data may be overestimated by 60,000 jobs, suggesting a potential monthly decline of 20,000 jobs, raising uncertainty for the upcoming December non-farm payroll data [1] - The employment data for November showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, while October's employment figures showed a significant decline of 105,000 jobs [3] Group 2 - The S&P Global Composite PMI fell from 54.2 in November to 53.0 in December, marking a six-month low, with both manufacturing and services new orders declining, indicating a shift in labor demand from expansion to contraction [3] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 214,000 over two weeks as of December 20, but continuing claims rose to 1.923 million, with a continuing claims rate of 1.3%, highlighting a disparity in the job market characterized by low layoffs and low hiring [3] - The upcoming December non-farm payroll data will not only confirm the trend of cooling in the job market but will also directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction in early 2026 [4]
决战非农｜2025收官之战 非农如何搅动全球市场？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-07 02:26