TMGM外汇平台：美联储今年应降息超过100个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate policy, with outgoing Governor Milan advocating for a more accommodative stance due to concerns over current interest rates impacting economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan suggests that interest rate cuts may need to exceed 100 basis points this year, significantly higher than the current official forecast [3]. - He believes that core inflation has largely returned to the target range of around 2%, while the U.S. economy remains resilient [3]. - The high interest rate environment is increasing financing costs, which is gradually dampening investment and consumption, indicating a need for policy easing to sustain economic expansion [3]. Group 2: Divergent Views Among Officials - Other officials, such as Kashkari, express a more cautious stance, indicating that the current policy is close to appropriate levels and future adjustments will depend on upcoming data regarding inflation and employment [4]. - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulsen also suggests that a moderate adjustment later in the year may be more suitable if economic trends align with expectations [4]. - Milan's views appear to reflect personal policy preferences rather than a consensus within the Federal Reserve, as the latest forecasts indicate limited room for rate cuts this year [4]. Group 3: Policy Discussion Focus - The discussion within the Federal Reserve has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and magnitude of rate cuts," with balancing inflation and growth remaining a core issue for future policy decisions [5].