中国汽车流通协会：预计乘用车2025年终端销量2355万辆，与2024年持平

Core Viewpoint - The automotive circulation industry in China is experiencing a decline in market sentiment, as indicated by an increase in the inventory warning index and a lack of year-end sales momentum [1][3]. Inventory and Sales Data - As of December 2025, the inventory warning index for automotive dealers is at 57.7%, which is a year-on-year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points [1]. - The predicted retail volume for passenger cars in December is approximately 2.2 million units, with an annual forecast of 23.55 million units for 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024 [3]. Market Demand and Dealer Sentiment - The inventory sub-index has significantly increased, while the market demand and personnel sub-indices have shown slight month-on-month increases. Conversely, average daily sales and operational status indices have decreased [5]. - In December, 41.7% of dealers reported a decline in transaction rates, while 32.6% indicated stability, and 25.7% noted an increase [7]. - A majority of dealers (53.5%) expect prices to decrease, while 43.8% believe prices will remain stable [7]. Regional and Brand Performance - The national index for December stands at 57.7%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 55.6%, East at 57.6%, West at 57.0%, and South at 61.2% [6]. - The index for luxury and joint venture brands has decreased, while the index for domestic brands has increased [6]. Future Outlook and Challenges - Dealers anticipate that market demand in January 2026 will remain stable, with 60.3% expecting no change, while 20.3% foresee a decrease [9]. - The automotive industry faces significant challenges, including reduced customer traffic, tightening consumer spending, and pressure from manufacturers to meet sales targets, leading to increased inventory and financial strain [11]. - The continuation of new policies in 2026 is expected to release pent-up demand, but dealers are cautious about sales targets, with 41.0% expecting a downward adjustment [12].