达利欧年度复盘：美元贬值，美股高回报只是“计价幻觉”，黄金跑赢一切

Group 1 - The core investment narrative for 2025 is not the strong performance of the US stock market, but rather the significant changes in currency values and the global shift in asset allocation, with gold emerging as the true winner [1][4][5] - The US stock market recorded an 18% return in USD terms, but this is largely attributed to the devaluation of fiat currencies, creating a "valuation illusion" [4][11] - The dollar depreciated by 39% against gold, while the return on gold investments (in USD) reached 65%. When measured in gold, the S&P 500 index actually declined by 28% [4][11] Group 2 - There is a notable shift of funds towards non-US markets, with overall returns from emerging markets reaching 34%, significantly outperforming US stocks [4][16] - The valuation of US stocks appears to have peaked, with equity risk premiums at historically low levels, indicating that the potential for additional returns from risk premiums has diminished [4][19] - The political landscape is shifting, with inflation leading to a "affordability" crisis that is likely to incite conflict between extreme left and right factions in the US by 2027-2028 [4][8][24] Group 3 - The collective weakening of fiat currencies has established gold as a primary reserve asset, with the dollar declining against several currencies, including a 13% drop against the Swiss franc and a 12% drop against the euro [5][10] - The performance of the S&P 500 is driven by profit growth and P/E ratio expansion, with the "seven giants" contributing significantly to overall earnings growth [6][17] - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital and private equity are under pressure, facing significant debt extension challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [7][22] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape is transitioning from multilateralism to unilateralism, increasing military spending and sanctions, which diminishes the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [8][30] - The disparity in wealth distribution is becoming a central political issue, with the top 10% of income earners holding a disproportionate amount of stock assets, while the bottom 60% feel the burden of inflation [8][24] - The current political climate, influenced by the Trump administration, is characterized by aggressive leverage of capitalist forces, which has implications for market dynamics and investor sentiment [23][25]