城堡证券：早期资本流入+反弹范围扩大 “一月效应”有望为美股全面上涨筑牢基础

Core Viewpoint - The "January Effect" appears particularly strong this year, with early capital inflows and an expanding market rebound laying the foundation for a broad rise in U.S. stocks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The balance in money markets has reached a record high of $7.6 trillion, supporting the theory that U.S. stocks tend to rise more easily in January compared to other months [1] - Since 1985, the Nasdaq 100 index has risen in about 70% of years in January, with an average increase of 2.5%, and nearly 6% in years when it ultimately closes higher [3] - Market volatility remains suppressed despite a series of catalyst events this month, with capital flows shifting from crowded trades to a broader market [3] Group 2: Retail and Institutional Participation - Retail activity remains robust, with retail traders accounting for approximately 60% of total client volume at options clearinghouses, indicating their significant influence on market outcomes [3] - Retail investors have generated over $20 billion in profits through options trading in 2025 and are entering January with new disposable funds, particularly in themes like quantum computing, robotics, and space [3] - Institutional clients are also increasing their exposure to risk assets, with recent options flows favoring sectors such as energy, utilities, real estate, and materials [4] Group 3: Market Structure and Future Outlook - The current positioning reflects a shift towards lagging sectors to diversify away from over-concentration in index leaders, indicating a healthier market structure [4] - Cross-asset correlations are converging to a one-year low, providing greater space for specific returns [4] - While a normalization of asset allocation and volatility repricing may lead to some "healthy digestion adjustments" in February, any pullback could be viewed as an opportunity to reallocate to risk assets at more attractive levels [4]