Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-07 03:09Core Viewpoint - High-temperature alloys are essential materials in key sectors such as aerospace engines, gas turbines, and nuclear power equipment, with their performance directly influencing the thrust, efficiency, and lifespan of high-end equipment. The industry is experiencing accelerated growth driven by domestic projects and the "dual carbon" strategy, with a recommendation to focus on the core supply chain of aerospace engines and gas turbines, maintaining an investment rating of "recommended" [1] Demand Side - The industry has seen explosive growth in demand, with production increasing from 19,000 tons in 2017 to 49,000 tons in 2023 (CAGR of 17.1%), and demand rising from 21,000 tons to 52,000 tons (CAGR of 16.8%), gradually narrowing the supply-demand gap. Production is expected to reach 57,000 tons in 2024 (YoY +16.3%), with aerospace (55%) and power (20%) as the core demand sectors. Long-term factors such as the replacement of aerospace engines, domestic aircraft production, and breakthroughs in gas turbines are projected to drive average annual demand exceeding 56,500 tons from 2025 to 2030, with gas turbines, aerospace, and automotive as the main growth points [2] Supply Side - The global high-temperature alloy market is expected to exceed $30 billion by 2025 (CAGR of 8.5%), with the Chinese market projected to reach 120 billion yuan, growing over 15% in the past five years. Domestic production capacity is continuously being released, with total capacity expected to exceed 60,000 tons by 2025, although there remains a 30% supply gap for high-end products. The domestic production rate is expected to rise from less than 40% in 2020 to about 65% by 2025, supported by policies under the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to a significant concentration in both ends of the industry chain, with upstream dominated by special steel enterprises like Fushun Special Steel [3] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by a "technology-driven, strong players" dynamic, with an expected average compound growth rate of 15% from 2025 to 2027, and the domestic replacement rate projected to increase from 32% in 2020 to 80% by 2027. Leading companies are achieving breakthroughs in niche areas: Western Superconducting's high-temperature alloy business revenue grew by 56.68% in H1 2025, Tunan Co., Ltd. (300855) achieved a gross margin of 39.4% in casting high-temperature alloys, and Steel Research Institute's revenue increased by 10.7% to 2.804 billion yuan in the first three quarters [4]