Ge Long Hui·2026-01-07 03:08Group 1 - Morgan Stanley estimates that after Maduro's departure, Venezuela's oil production may experience a short-term shock, potentially declining by 50% [1] - If political and operational stability is restored, production could quickly recover, with the potential to reach 1.4 million barrels per day within two years and 2.5 million barrels per day in the next decade, compared to the current production of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The impact on Chinese oil companies is limited, as while Venezuelan crude is expected to account for 4% of China's total crude imports by 2025, most of it is processed by independent or small refineries rather than major listed companies like Sinopec or PetroChina [1] - Sinopec and CNOOC do not have commercial assets in Venezuela, and the loss of Venezuelan crude would have a limited effect on China's refining industry due to the availability of alternative crude sources [1] Group 3 - The company is optimistic about PetroChina, as it has successfully decoupled from oil prices through its local natural gas business, with expected dividends of 0.26 yuan in the second half of the year [1] - The lower oil prices and interest rate environment may accelerate the recovery of oil-based chemical stocks, with a "buy" rating assigned to Hengli Petrochemical [1] - Due to weak short-term profit prospects, Sinopec has been given a "neutral" rating, with plans to reassess after the clarity of its "14th Five-Year Plan" strategy [1]