美元盯上AI，霸权还能复制吗

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "AI Dollar" is emerging in the U.S. strategic circles, aiming to anchor the U.S. dollar to artificial intelligence, similar to how oil once supported it, reflecting a sense of anxiety regarding the dollar's future [1][9] Group 1: Current Status of the Dollar - The dollar remains dominant, being used in over half of international trade and holding a significant position in foreign exchange transactions and reserves [3] - Despite its current strength, the dollar is under pressure, with increasing discussions about de-dollarization due to its overuse [3][9] Group 2: Historical Context - The dollar's rise began with the Bretton Woods system, which established it as a "paper gold" backed by gold, later transitioning to being supported by oil [3][4] - The dollar's role expanded with financial derivatives, becoming the universal language of financial markets, where fluctuations in dollar interest rates can impact global asset prices [3] Group 3: AI as a New Anchor - The U.S. is focusing on AI as a new growth area, hoping to create a scenario where AI-related transactions are dollar-denominated, similar to oil [4][6] - However, AI lacks the foundational characteristics of oil, such as a concentrated source and clear transport channels, making it less likely to replicate the "petrodollar" model [6] Group 4: Challenges and Competition - AI is a technology system rather than a natural resource, with no single point of origin or irreplaceable form, leading to a multi-polar competitive landscape [6][9] - The core resources of AI—people, algorithms, and data—are highly mobile and can be localized, complicating the U.S.'s ability to maintain dominance [6] Group 5: Financial Innovations and Trust Issues - The inclusion of stablecoins and cryptocurrencies in the "AI Dollar" concept reflects an awareness of emerging payment networks outside traditional finance [6][7] - However, trust in these innovations is not guaranteed, as they still rely on the dollar's credibility, which is being undermined by its frequent use as a political tool [7][9] Group 6: Future Outlook - The dollar's challenges are not solely economic but also political, with the overuse of the dollar as a tool eroding trust [9] - The "AI Dollar" concept may represent strategic anxiety rather than a viable solution, as the world moves towards a more diversified monetary landscape [9]