Ge Long Hui·2026-01-07 03:21Group 1 - Morgan Stanley estimates that after Maduro's departure, Venezuela's oil production may experience a temporary shock, potentially dropping by 50% [1] - If political and operational stability is restored, production could quickly recover, with the potential to reach 1.4 million barrels per day within two years and 2.5 million barrels per day in the next decade, compared to the current production of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The impact on Chinese oil companies is limited, as Venezuelan crude is expected to account for only 4% of China's total crude imports by 2025, with most processed by independent or small refineries rather than major listed companies like Sinopec or PetroChina [3] - Sinopec and CNOOC do not have commercial assets in Venezuela, and the loss of Venezuelan crude would have a limited effect on China's refining industry due to the availability of alternative crude sources [3] - The company is optimistic about PetroChina due to its successful decoupling from oil prices through local natural gas operations, expecting a dividend of 0.26 yuan in the second half of the year [3] - Lower oil prices and interest rates may accelerate the recovery of oil-based chemical stocks, with an "overweight" rating given to Hengli Petrochemical [3] - Due to weak short-term profit prospects, Sinopec is rated "neutral," with a reassessment pending clearer strategies from its 14th Five-Year Plan [3]