Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-07 03:29Group 1 - Aluminum stocks continue to rise, with Nanshan Aluminum up 12.13% to HKD 61, China Hongqiao up 4.08% to HKD 36.7, and China Aluminum up 3.32% to HKD 13.71 [1] - CICC forecasts that aluminum supply will initially be low and then increase by 2026, but overall growth remains limited, with a projected net increase of 1.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - The report highlights that despite Indonesia's planned capacity appearing sufficient, power supply issues may hinder the release of electrolytic aluminum capacity [1] Group 2 - Hualian Futures notes that domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and supply-side structural reforms along with dual carbon goals have effectively closed the expansion channel for electrolytic aluminum capacity [1] - Minmetals Futures indicates that geopolitical factors affecting overseas markets are likely to keep precious metals and copper prices high, which will also support aluminum prices [1] - Despite rising aluminum prices potentially suppressing downstream operations, low overseas aluminum inventories and supply disruptions are expected to support continued strong fluctuations in aluminum prices [1]