Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-07 03:29Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the liquor industry is expected to fully release risks by 2025, with improvements in supply and demand anticipated in 2026, characterized by a "supply-first, demand-gradual" recovery [1] - Current market conditions show a triple bottom in sales, pricing, and financial reports, with short-term improvements in sales expected during the Spring Festival, and mid-term recovery in sales, pricing, and financial reports anticipated [1] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The overall consumption landscape is stabilizing, but prices are under pressure, with structural growth changes continuing; the food and beverage sector saw a cumulative decline of 4% in 2025, with liquor significantly impacted, down 7% year-to-date [1] - High-end consumption is recovering first, with experiential consumption leading the way; product life cycles are shortening, and there is a clear trend towards health-oriented products and improved trust in channels [1] Group 3: Liquor Industry Analysis - The supply side is clearing, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye stabilizing prices and boosting channel confidence; the industry is expected to prioritize volume over price and focus on sales and market share in 2026 [2] - Demand is gradually recovering, with sales showing signs of improvement; the peak sales period around the Spring Festival is expected to see continued recovery, particularly for leading brands [2] Group 4: Beer and Beverage Sector - The beer sector is anticipated to benefit from restaurant recovery, with expectations for volume and price performance to exceed forecasts; key stocks include Beijing Beer and China Resources Beer [3] - The beverage industry is expanding steadily, with segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks leading growth; companies with strong brand and channel capabilities are likely to stand out in a competitive landscape [3] Group 5: Food Sector Insights - The restaurant supply chain is seeing a recovery in demand, with price wars easing; leading companies like Anjijia are expected to navigate price pressures effectively [4] - The snack sector is focusing on retail transformation and product-driven growth, with opportunities for standout products; the dairy sector is expected to see a turning point in raw milk cycles in the second half of 2026 [4] - The health supplement market in China is still in a growth phase, with new ingredients and effects presenting explosive opportunities; companies like H&H International Holdings are highlighted for their resilience [4]