兴业证券首席王涵：从市场层面讲，人民币外汇市场就是一个庄家的逻辑

Group 1: Current Macro Financial Situation - The global financial market is reflecting a clear trend of geopolitical multipolarity, with traditional safe-haven currencies like the USD and JPY losing their attributes [1][4] - The correlation between the USD and the VIX has dropped from around 0.5-0.6 to approximately 0, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4] - Emerging market bonds have seen a significant reduction in credit spreads compared to US Treasuries, suggesting a growing confidence in emerging markets over developed ones [5] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Analysis - The RMB's exchange rate against the USD has decreased from 7.3 at the beginning of the year to below 7, while the RMB's index against a basket of currencies has also weakened, indicating a broader depreciation influenced by the USD [5][6] - A critical point for the RMB exchange rate is identified at 6.7, where a potential inflow of previously exited capital could create upward pressure on the RMB [8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to manage market expectations to avoid rapid unilateral appreciation of the RMB, with a more likely scenario being a gradual rise to around 6.8 [1][9] Group 3: Future Projections for the USD and RMB - The USD is anticipated to weaken further due to increased fiscal pressures and potential monetary easing measures, which could lead to upward pressure on the RMB [6][7] - The RMB's future trajectory will depend significantly on the PBOC's management of the exchange rate and market sentiment, with a focus on balancing internationalization efforts and domestic economic stability [9][10] - Historical patterns suggest that the rise of a financial power typically follows the establishment of industrial and commercial strength, positioning China at a critical juncture for financial ascendance [2][10]