Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-07 03:56Core Insights - The wind and solar storage industry is expected to recover profitability amidst oversupply by 2025, with overseas markets becoming a highlight for growth [1][2] - The industry is anticipated to enter a new cycle in 2026 driven by "anti-involution" and technological resonance, focusing on new technology commercialization, global expansion, and supply-demand improvements [1][2] Group 1: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook - In 2025, the wind and solar storage sector will still face oversupply, but profitability is expected to recover due to anti-involution and increased overseas sales [2] - By December 31, 2025, the CSI 300 Index is projected to increase by 17.66%, the ChiNext Index by 49.57%, and the Electric New Energy Index by 39.47%, ranking 7th out of 30 industries [2] - The implementation of Document No. 136 will accelerate the entry of new energy into the market, with 2026 marking the beginning of a new cycle for the 14th Five-Year Plan in new energy [2] Group 2: Energy Storage - The demand for large-scale energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with North America's AIDC storage demand projected to rise from 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GW by 2030, representing a CAGR of approximately 84% [3] - The demand for green electricity direct connection is anticipated to increase from 78 GWh in 2025 to 475 GW by 2030, with a CAGR of about 44% [3] - European markets are expected to see concentrated deployment in the next 3-5 years, with strong demand for industrial and commercial storage in Europe, Australia, and emerging markets [3] Group 3: Wind Power - Domestic wind power installations are projected to reach 110-120 GW for onshore and 12-16 GW for offshore by 2026, with the 14th Five-Year Plan potentially exceeding 120 GW per year for onshore and 15 GW per year for offshore [4] - The global offshore wind market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27% over the next 25-30 years [4] - The industry is experiencing a stabilization in onshore turbine prices and limited downward pressure on offshore prices, with increased overseas orders expected to boost profitability for manufacturers [4] Group 4: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is set for profitability recovery driven by anti-involution, with new technology iterations and global expansion leading growth [5] - China is expected to lead the market, with installations projected between 230-250 GW in 2026, supported by recovering demand in Europe and the U.S. and emerging markets gaining momentum [5] - Key technological advancements include the expansion of BC battery capacity, mass production of perovskite technology, and breakthroughs in silver reduction techniques, which are expected to lower costs and improve margins [5]