美委石油“战略价格”内幕曝光：一场不对等的能源交易

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is preparing to re-import Venezuelan oil, but the terms of pricing, destination, and regulations are no longer under Venezuela's control [1] Group 1: Venezuela's Diminished Autonomy - Venezuela has only one viable option left: to sell oil under U.S. terms or face storage overflow and further production cuts [2] - The loss of buyer choice means Venezuela has also lost its bargaining power [4] - The negotiations with Washington are not about market re-entry but rather about compliance with U.S. restrictions [2] Group 2: Impact on China - Venezuela has millions of barrels of oil either loaded on ships or stored, but U.S. sanctions prevent any movement [6] - Venezuela's current export capacity is less than 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day, which is significantly lower than China's daily import needs of approximately 11 to 12 million barrels [8] - Venezuela has never been a critical variable for China's energy security, and the U.S. is unlikely to significantly impact China's oil imports [9] Group 3: Pricing Mechanism - The absence of a specific transaction price indicates that the pricing logic is predetermined through proposed auction mechanisms, which favor buyers [10] - The issuance of U.S. licenses will dictate pricing, further diminishing Venezuela's control over its oil sales [10] - Discussions about replenishing the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) suggest that prices will be politically influenced and below market rates [10] Group 4: Reasons for Compromise - Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA, has been forced to cut production due to an inability to sell oil, indicating that negotiations are now about securing funding rather than price [11] - The U.S. government, not Venezuela's energy department, will dictate who can buy, how much, and the terms of settlement [12] - Not selling oil results in severe financial consequences, affecting social spending and political stability [13]