高盛看多2026年中国股市：预计MSCI中国指数上涨20% 沪深300上看5200点

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Chinese stock market benchmark index will rise further by 2026, supported by profit growth driven by artificial intelligence and policy measures, although the growth rate will slow compared to last year [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The MSCI China Index is expected to reach 100 points by the end of 2026, a 20% increase from the end of 2025 [1] - The CSI 300 Index is projected to rise by 12% to 5200 points by 2026 [1] Group 2: Profit Growth Drivers - Profit growth in the Chinese stock market is anticipated to improve from 4% in 2025 to approximately 14% in 2026-2027, supported by the development of artificial intelligence, companies going global, and anti-involution policies [1] - Net inflows from southbound capital are expected to reach $200 billion, potentially setting a new historical high [1] Group 3: Sector Preferences - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about artificial intelligence-related themes and favors service-oriented consumption within the consumer sector [1] - The firm is particularly focused on the materials sector within the cyclical segment and maintains an overweight view on the insurance sector [1] Group 4: Recent Market Performance - In 2025, the MSCI China Index rose by 23%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 18%, indicating strong momentum that has continued into the new year [2] - As of early 2026, the CSI 300 Index has risen by 3.5%, reaching its highest level in four years, while the MSCI China Index has increased by 3.4%, outperforming the S&P 500 [2] - Goldman Sachs and other major institutions maintain a positive outlook, reflecting confidence in profit expansion, policy measures, and new growth drivers attracting investors [2]