万亿美元顺差是问题吗？复旦圆桌会热议贸易平衡与政策选择

Core Insights - China's goods trade surplus reached a record $1.0758 trillion in the first 11 months of last year, making it the first country to surpass a trillion-dollar surplus [1] - The forum at Fudan University focused on the structural causes, global impacts, and policy responses related to the anticipated record trade surplus in 2025 [1] Group 1: Structural Causes of Trade Surplus - The trade surplus is not a short-term phenomenon, having shown a sharp increase since 2018, driven by enhanced manufacturing competitiveness and long-term export support policies, alongside domestic consumption and investment shortfalls leading to "savings surplus" [2] - China's export products are transitioning from labor-intensive to high-tech products, with significant growth in exports of automobiles and integrated circuits, while traditional categories like textiles are experiencing negative growth [3] Group 2: Global Impact and Trade Dynamics - The proportion of trade surplus with the US and EU has decreased from 92% in 2018 to less than 50%, while countries along the "Belt and Road" account for 43.6% of the surplus, enhancing China's proactive stance in trade negotiations [5] - The correlation coefficient between geopolitical conflicts and China's trade surplus is 0.69, indicating that external factors significantly influence the surplus [3] Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Future Outlook - Experts recommend avoiding drastic measures like significant RMB appreciation or the complete removal of export tax rebates, which could harm export businesses and employment [2] - Suggestions include adjusting trade policies to expand imports of non-strategic products, lowering tariffs, and encouraging e-commerce companies to establish overseas warehouses to alleviate surplus pressure [2] - The transition from export to "going out" is seen as a trend that can help improve profit margins for companies and reshape the current account structure, similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s [6]