邓正红能源软实力：短期地缘风险对油价影响呈现“模棱两可”状态 国际油价走低

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump regarding Venezuela's transfer of 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. has raised concerns about increased supply, leading to a decline in oil prices as the market weighs global supply expectations against Venezuela's uncertain production levels [1][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - On January 6, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $57.13 per barrel, down $1.19 (2.04%), and Brent crude oil at $60.70 per barrel, down $1.06 (1.72%) [1]. - Goldman Sachs reported that Venezuela's impact on oil prices is ambiguous in the short term, depending on the evolution of U.S. sanctions. If the new government receives full sanction waivers, production could increase by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of 2026, potentially lowering Brent crude's average price to $54 per barrel [2]. Group 2: Rule Dynamics and Market Expectations - The dynamics of the energy market are influenced not only by supply and demand but also by the reconstruction of international rules and power plays, as highlighted by Trump's announcement and the regulatory oversight of oil sales [3]. - The current decline in oil prices reflects a dynamic interplay between rule expectations and material realities, with market participants weighing the potential for increased Venezuelan production against the uncertainties of regulatory changes [4]. Group 3: U.S. Soft Power and Oil Pricing - Trump's policy represents a form of "value innovation," aiming to reshape the oil pricing power structure through regulatory interventions and investment incentives, thereby enhancing U.S. influence over Venezuela's economy [5]. - The linkage between Trump's policies towards Venezuela and India illustrates a broader strategy of using multilateral rules to shape global energy governance, positioning the U.S. as a rule-maker rather than a passive participant [5]. Group 4: Market Response to Regulatory Uncertainty - The drop in oil prices on January 6 is fundamentally a market reaction to regulatory uncertainties surrounding Venezuela's production recovery, which relies on sanction waivers that are not guaranteed [6]. - The concept of "rule entropy" is evident as the reconstruction of rules introduces confusion, making it difficult for the market to assess long-term supply prospects, thereby suppressing oil prices [6].