Ge Long Hui·2026-01-07 04:39Core Viewpoint - JD Health is expected to maintain strong revenue growth and profit release in Q4 2025, driven by the continuous increase in online penetration of pharmaceutical categories and competitive advantages from its supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a total revenue growth of 22.7% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 20.26 billion yuan [1]. - The pharmaceutical category is expected to show robust performance with GMV growth exceeding 30%, while nutrition and medical device categories are anticipated to grow by over 20% and 10%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to realize a non-IFRS operating profit of 260 million yuan in Q4 2025, corresponding to a non-IFRS operating profit margin of 1.3%, an improvement of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For the full year of 2025, JD Health's revenue is projected to grow by 25% year-on-year to 72.7 billion yuan, with a non-IFRS operating profit of 4.11 billion yuan, reflecting a non-IFRS operating profit margin of 5.7%, an improvement of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Offline Expansion and AI Integration - The company plans to open over 200 new offline pharmacy stores in the second half of 2025, with 150 new stores expected in Q4 2025, accelerating from over 50 in Q3 2025 [2]. - JD Health's "self-operated pharmacy medical insurance business" has expanded to 8 cities, including the recent addition of Shanghai, which is anticipated to enhance user penetration and performance [2]. - The company is strengthening collaborations with upstream medical brands for new drug launches, showcasing its increasing channel value [2]. - The AI application in healthcare is gaining traction, with the AI doctor "Dai Wei" achieving a satisfaction rate of 98%, enhancing JD Health's internet medical service capabilities [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised by 11.6%, 15.6%, and 22.4% to 6.32 billion, 7.51 billion, and 9.01 billion yuan, respectively, primarily due to revised revenue expectations [3]. - The valuation window has shifted to 2026, with a target non-IFRS PE of 30.0x for 2026, compared to a previous value of 35.0x, reflecting a premium over the average PE of comparable companies at 14.7x [3]. - The target price has been adjusted to 77.4 HKD, up from 68.3 HKD [3].