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Group 1: Economic Pressure from Europe - The European Union has implemented the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting January 1, 2026, requiring Chinese exports like steel, cement, and aluminum to pay additional fees based on their carbon pricing system, which is significantly higher than China's domestic carbon prices [3][6] - This move is perceived as a trade barrier disguised as an environmental initiative, potentially reducing profits for Chinese companies by over 10% and risking the export eligibility of smaller firms [3][6] - The EU's actions indicate a lack of genuine intent to improve relations with China, aiming instead to leverage negotiations for economic gain while increasing pressure on China [6] Group 2: U.S. Military and Economic Strategy - The U.S. has maintained a dual approach, increasing military pressure on China while avoiding economic decoupling, as evidenced by ongoing arms sales to Taiwan totaling over $30 billion since 2025 [8][10] - The U.S. is testing China's response to various provocations, including military sales and geopolitical maneuvers, to gauge whether China will retaliate or remain passive [10] - This strategy reflects a calculated effort to use Taiwan as a strategic asset without escalating to direct conflict, indicating a complex interplay of military and economic tactics [8][10] Group 3: Japan's Historical and Defense Posture - Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, has emphasized a shift towards a more aggressive defense policy, including discussions on increasing defense spending and potentially revising nuclear principles, which aligns with a broader right-wing sentiment in the government [12][14] - The cancellation of a major business delegation to China signals a deterioration in economic relations, influenced by Japan's historical revisionism and military posturing [14] - Japan's strategy appears to be an attempt to enhance its position within the U.S.-Japan alliance while underestimating the potential backlash from neighboring countries and the economic consequences of escalating tensions with China [14][16] Group 4: Coordinated Pressure on China - The simultaneous actions from the EU, U.S., and Japan suggest a coordinated effort to test China's limits regarding economic concessions, military responses, and historical grievances [16] - Each entity is probing whether China will yield to pressures such as accepting carbon tariffs, tolerating military sales to Taiwan, or overlooking historical provocations for the sake of economic cooperation [16] - The evolving geopolitical landscape indicates that China is no longer a passive player and is actively developing its own carbon accounting and green standards to counteract unilateral measures from the EU [18]