Ugly Charts of US Auto Sales, 2025: Stellantis, Nissan Flirt with Catastrophe. GM, Ford, Honda Sales Rise but far below Peaks. Toyota & Hyundai-Kia Set Records

Core Insights - Total new-vehicle sales in 2025 rose by 2.4% to 16.2 million vehicles, marking the highest level since 2019 and just above 1986 levels, indicating four decades of stagnation and partial recoveries [1] - The automotive market has seen significant fluctuations, with some manufacturers experiencing steep declines while others have managed to increase sales [1][4] Sales Performance by Automakers - General Motors (GM): Q4 sales fell by 6.9% year-over-year to 703,001 units, but full-year sales rose by 5.5% to 2.85 million vehicles, still down 7.5% from the 2015 peak [14] - Toyota: Combined sales for Toyota and Lexus jumped by 8.0% in 2025 to 2.52 million vehicles, slightly surpassing the 2015 peak [16] - Ford: Sales rose by 6.0% to 2.20 million vehicles for the year, but this was still down 15% from the 2015 peak [19] - Hyundai-Kia: Combined sales increased by 7.4% to a record 1.63 million vehicles, up 26% from the 2015 high [21] - Honda: Full-year sales inched up by 0.5% to 1.43 million vehicles, but still down 13% from the 2017 peak [25] - Stellantis: Sales dropped by 3% to 1.26 million vehicles, a 44% decline from the 2015 peak [28] - Nissan: Sales were roughly flat at 926,153 vehicles, down 42% from the 2017 peak [31] Pricing Trends - The average retail transaction price peaked at $47,329 at the end of 2022 and was $47,104 at the end of 2025, reflecting a 1.5% increase year-over-year but a 0.5% decrease from three years ago [8] - Automakers have raised prices across the board, with a 36% increase in average retail transaction prices from 2020 to 2022, leading to consumer pushback [6][7] Market Dynamics - The automotive industry has been characterized by a shift towards upscale models, with manufacturers focusing on larger and more expensive vehicles to boost revenues amid stagnating unit sales [7] - The market has seen a significant impact from federal incentives and tariffs, with Q3 sales surging due to frontrunning these changes, followed by a Q4 decline of 4.2% year-over-year [4]