周君芝: 2026，黄金是否还将“狂飙”

Core Insights - The financial sanctions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 highlighted the manipulability of the international financial order by the U.S., leading to a surge in gold prices and Bitcoin due to their cross-border transaction advantages [1] - The anticipated tariff battles in 2025 will further reveal the fragility of the financial order, causing gold prices to rise while U.S. Treasury bonds may decline, indicating a shift in market perceptions of U.S. credit [1] - The future market will witness the emergence of technology as a key driver of the dollar's cyclical nature, challenging the U.S.'s dominance and supporting a bullish outlook for gold in the medium term [1] - In the short term, 2026 is expected to see a temporary economic boom driven by AI capital expenditures, with copper prices likely outperforming gold [1] Group 1: 2025 Gold Surge - 2025 is projected to be a historic year for precious metals, with gold and silver prices increasing by 70% and 141% respectively, marking the second-highest annual gains since the 1960s [3][4] - The surge in gold prices is driven by three macroeconomic factors: tariffs imposed by the U.S. leading to price disparities, global uncertainty from widespread tariffs, and liquidity-driven asset pricing following monetary easing [5][7] - Central bank gold purchases reflect a shift from a U.S.-dominated unipolar world to a more multipolar international order, indicating a restructuring of global financial norms [7] Group 2: 2026 Gold Price Outlook - Two scenarios are considered for gold prices in 2026: one where the shift from tariff battles to technology competition leads to a decline in gold prices, and another where a potential collapse of the AI capital expenditure bubble results in a price increase [9][15] - The first scenario suggests that as tariff uncertainties diminish and technology investments rise, gold prices may not perform as strongly as in 2025 [12][13] - The second scenario posits that if AI capital expenditures falter, it could trigger a significant rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset, although this outcome is deemed less likely [15][17]