TMGM官网：美元指数在98.50附近走软，受政策与经济数据影响

Group 1 - The dollar index has weakened again after a brief rebound, hovering around 98.50, indicating that the support factors for the dollar are not solid [1] - The upcoming U.S. December ADP employment numbers and ISM non-manufacturing PMI are key indicators that reflect the employment market and service sector sentiment, crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy [3] - Geopolitical factors have limited the dollar's safe-haven appeal, as market reactions to U.S. involvement in Venezuela have been relatively calm, suggesting that political risks have not yet translated into systemic safe-haven demand [3] Group 2 - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is becoming a significant factor suppressing the dollar, with some officials advocating for substantial rate cuts while others express caution regarding employment prospects [3][4] - Concerns about new personnel arrangements potentially altering policy direction or communication style are adding emotional pressure on the dollar, despite a high probability of maintaining current interest rates [4] - The weakening of the dollar index is driven by a combination of economic data forecasts, policy divergences, and accumulated uncertainties, with the market likely to reassess the dollar's medium-term direction based on data and policy signals [4]