大摩看涨黄金至4800美元，称降息周期与全球风险将延续黄金牛市

Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, central bank purchases, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1] - JPMorgan has also raised its gold price outlook, forecasting $5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026 and $6,000 in the long term, citing trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks as factors supporting safe-haven demand [3] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to macroeconomic and policy shifts, including anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong institutional inflows [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Safe-Haven Demand - The recent U.S. military control over Venezuela's leadership has reignited safe-haven demand for gold, amid rising geopolitical uncertainties in energy and financial markets [2] - Analysts note that investors typically seek gold during economic and political tensions, as it performs well in low-interest-rate environments [2] Group 3: Central Bank and Institutional Demand - Central banks have increased their gold purchases, with gold now surpassing U.S. Treasuries in global central bank reserves for the first time since 1996, indicating strong long-term confidence in gold [4] - Record inflows into gold-backed ETFs reflect growing interest from both institutional and retail investors, further supporting demand for gold [4] Group 4: Other Precious Metals - Silver has seen a significant price increase of 147% in 2025, driven by structural supply shortages and strong industrial demand [6] - Morgan Stanley also highlights positive outlooks for aluminum and copper, with both facing supply constraints amid rising demand [6]