周五决战：非农与关税裁决直接对决，委内瑞拉只是背景噪音

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is currently more focused on upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, rather than geopolitical events such as U.S. intervention in Venezuela [1][2] - Economists predict that the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs last month, an increase from 64,000 in November, with the unemployment rate expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5% [1] - The market's reaction to the situation in Venezuela is muted as it has not significantly altered the inflation narrative, according to market analysts [2][3] Group 2 - The recent sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market is attributed to random fluctuations and a return to normal trading volumes at the beginning of the year [3] - Analysts do not foresee the Venezuelan situation causing significant disruptions akin to Middle Eastern conflicts, as there is no immediate risk of geopolitical instability or oil price spikes [3] - The U.S. Treasury market is nearing a milestone, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level relative to the 2-year yield in nearly nine months, indicating expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2026 [3][4] Group 3 - The yield curve has steepened, with the 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeding the 2-year yield by 72 basis points for the first time since April, driven by expectations of further Fed easing [4] - The increase in corporate bond issuance at the beginning of the year has put upward pressure on long-term yields, exacerbating the steepening of the yield curve [4] - The yield curve is expected to become steeper as economic conditions remain strong, despite a weak labor market, with the Fed continuing to play a significant role [5]