Ge Long Hui·2026-01-07 06:19Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong MTR Corporation has established itself as a key player in Hong Kong's rail transport since its inception in 1975, with a significant focus on a "rail + property" development model to fund railway projects through land development rights [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The MTR Corporation was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2000 and merged with Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation in 2007, officially becoming Hong Kong Railway Limited [1] - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, represented by the Financial Secretary, holds a controlling stake of 74.45% in the company [1] Group 2: Business Model and Market Outlook - The "rail + property" development model allows the company to leverage land development rights along railway lines to finance the high costs associated with railway construction and maintenance [1] - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is expected to contribute to the company's long-term property development growth, with significant revenue recognition anticipated in 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 3: Financial Performance and Dividend Policy - The company has adopted a progressive dividend policy, with dividends per share increasing from HKD 1.06 in 2015 to HKD 1.31 in 2024, maintaining dividends even during losses in 2020 [2] - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at HKD 162.03 billion, HKD 201.66 billion, and HKD 101.38 billion, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12x, 9x, and 19x [2] - The overall enterprise value of the company is estimated at HKD 276.6 billion, with a 20% discount applied for diversification, leading to a target equity value of HKD 221.3 billion and a target share price of HKD 35.55, indicating a 19% upside from the current market value [2]