市场创新高，红利慢半拍？2026年还能投吗？

Core Viewpoint - The performance of dividend strategies in the A-share market has been relatively muted in 2025, despite the overall market reaching new highs, raising questions about the effectiveness of these strategies as a stable investment option [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - Over the past decade, major dividend indices have shown annualized returns between 10% and 15%, indicating solid long-term performance [3]. - In 2025, the Shanghai Dividend Index recorded a return of only 0.41%, while the CSI Dividend Index performed slightly better at 3.76% [4][5]. - The muted performance in 2025 can be attributed to two main factors: a digestion phase following a significant rise in 2024 and a market dominated by growth stocks, particularly in AI and technology sectors [5][6]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Three key factors have influenced the dividend strategy's performance in 2025: 1. Style rotation suppression, as the A-share market has been dominated by a growth style since 2024, leading to a decline in interest for value-oriented dividend strategies [6]. 2. Increased uncertainty in geopolitical and policy environments, which can enhance the appeal of dividend strategies as a defensive measure during market volatility [6]. 3. Changes in government bond yields, where rising yields have reduced the attractiveness of dividends relative to bonds, impacting the dividend strategy's appeal [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - The future performance of dividend strategies in 2026 will depend on several factors: 1. The duration of the growth style's dominance in the market, with a potential need for a shift in market conditions for dividend strategies to recover [8]. 2. The ongoing performance of the "low volatility" factor, which may underperform in the early stages of a bull market but could regain traction as market conditions evolve [9]. 3. Internal differentiation within dividend strategies based on macroeconomic conditions, where sectors like manufacturing may benefit in a recovering economy, while stable high-dividend sectors may perform better in a low-rate environment [10]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The underlying logic of dividend strategies remains focused on stable cash flow and long-term returns, while adaptability to macroeconomic and market style fluctuations is essential [11]. - The dividend yield of the S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 Index has returned to over 5%, indicating a potential favorable investment opportunity following recent market corrections [11].