投资大佬发出时代变局警告：“权力驱动市场”时代已至，战后旧秩序崩塌

Core Viewpoint - The post-World War II economic order has effectively collapsed, replaced by a new era of "state activism" characterized by geopolitical tensions and market dynamics driven by power rather than efficiency [1] Commodity Prices - Silver prices have surpassed $80 per ounce, while copper is testing $6 per pound, indicating a significant rise in commodity prices that reflects deeper geopolitical fractures rather than merely monetary phenomena [1] - The sharp increase in precious metal prices coincides with central banks diversifying reserves away from sovereign debt, which is seen as a rational response to fiscal dominance [2] Market Signals - Traditional market signals such as yield curves and price-to-earnings ratios are becoming ineffective as the underlying drivers of capital have shifted [1] - The market is attempting to price in the reality that the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are effectively the same entity [3] Mining Sector Risks - Despite gold's 64.5% increase in 2025, there are warnings regarding mining stocks due to rising jurisdictional risks and government interventions that may hinder profitability [4] - Speculative trading in mining stocks may lead to unfavorable outcomes, as major North American miners are expected to see a 2% decline in global gold production in 2026, with all-in sustaining costs rising to $1,600 per ounce [5] Geopolitical Factors - The price of copper reflects physical scarcity, exacerbated by geopolitical realignments, with a projected refined copper shortfall of over 300,000 tons in 2026 [7] - Political instability in resource-rich countries, such as Venezuela, is increasing the risk of supply disruptions, further driving up prices [7] Investment Strategy - The transition to this new paradigm is volatile but offers clear direction for those willing to abandon outdated frameworks and recognize the importance of acquiring physical resources over holding paper derivatives [7] - The real danger lies not in volatility but in clinging to a framework that no longer exists [8]