曹德旺预言要成真？若不出意外，2026年房地产或将面临5大转折

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2026 has shifted from a speculative environment to a focus on quality housing, with significant changes in buyer behavior and market dynamics [3][12][34]. Market Reversal - The market has transitioned from a "buying frenzy" to a "quality improvement" phase, with 45% of total transactions being second-hand homes, and major cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai seeing transaction volume increases of 20%-30% year-on-year [5][7]. - New home sales are expected to decline by 6.2% in 2026, indicating a cooling new home market [7]. - Developers are becoming more cautious, with residential land transaction area dropping by 13.7% in 2025 and expected new construction area to decrease by 8.6% in 2026 [9][10]. Product Upgrade - The focus for homebuyers in 2026 is shifting towards selecting "good houses," with a national push for quality housing construction [12]. - There are over 120 million vacant homes in urban areas, enough to accommodate 360 million people, highlighting an oversupply issue [13]. - New developments are being upgraded in terms of design and amenities, with stricter standards being implemented [15][17]. Regional Differentiation - The market is experiencing a stark divide, with high demand for quality homes in core cities and a surplus of unsold properties in lower-tier cities [22][23]. - Inventory turnover in first and strong second-tier cities is generally under 12 months, while it exceeds 24 months in many third and fourth-tier cities [25]. - Population migration towards major cities is driving demand, with Beijing's new home sales increasing by 8.48% in 2025 [27][29]. Policy Support - The central government is committed to stabilizing the real estate market, with new policies aimed at stimulating demand and improving supply [34][36]. - Recent policy changes in Beijing have already led to increased buyer activity, with further optimizations expected in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [38]. - Efforts are being made to address market irregularities and protect buyers from misinformation [40][42].