山西证券：反内卷扭转煤炭市场预期 料动力煤价格26年将维持紧平衡

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the trend of reversing the "involution" in the coal industry remains unchanged, with expectations for performance improvement in Q4 and potential recovery in 2026 if prices remain high [1] - The report highlights that since 2025, coal stocks have been negatively impacted by falling coal prices, but the pessimistic outlook has significantly eased following the implementation of Document No. 108 [1] - The concept of "involution" is aimed at reversing deflation trends, with a transmission chain of "deflation → reversal of involution → profit improvement → inflation," suggesting that short-term supply control and medium-term demand recovery are crucial for the coal sector [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates that coal consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to peak, but coal will still play a crucial role in ensuring energy security [2] - It is projected that the demand for electricity from coal will not be significantly squeezed by the growth of renewable energy until the increase in renewable power generation exceeds the overall electricity demand growth [2] - The report suggests that in 2026, electricity demand must be maintained at a certain level to ensure that the demand for thermal power remains unaffected by renewable energy [2] Group 3 - For 2026, the forecast for thermal coal prices is expected to maintain a tight balance, with a central prediction of around 720 yuan/ton [3] - The report indicates that while market pressure for thermal coal will persist in the first half of 2026, it is expected to ease compared to the same period in 2025 [3] - The forecast for coking coal prices in 2026 is expected to show a weak balance with moderate elasticity, with a central price range of approximately 1440-1584 yuan/ton [3]